out·post, \ˈaut-ˌpōst\, noun: an outlying or frontier settlement
ob·serv·er, \əb-ˈzər-vər\, noun: a representative sent to observe but not participate in an activity
Thursday, September 15, 2011
By John A. Ostenburg
Political pundits have been pontificating for the last several days that the special election in New York's 9th Congressional District on September 13 -- in which newcomer Bob Turner took the seat formerly held by enscandaled (it's fun to make up new words!) former Congressman Anthony D. Weiner -- is a sign that President Barack Obama's re-election is in jeopardy.
Those pundits, along with some Republican officials who like to blame the President for everything, maintain that the special election was a referendum on the President's policies. They say the fact that a heavily Democratic district, one that had not elected a Republican since 1920, went to the GOP challenger is a clear indication that Mr. Obama's policies are unfavorable with the traditional liberal wing of the Democratic Party as well as the conservative tea-party folks who have taken over the Republican Party.
But is that really the case? Was it really a referendum on the President's policies. Maybe that was a part of it, but was it really the major reason behind the victory in a heavily Democratic, Jewish district by Mr. Turner, a 70-year-old conservative Roman Catholic whose only claim to fame previously had been a stint as a producer for the Jerry Springer Show?
Actually, political history offers a much different explanation.
Truth be told, one of the easiest things to predict in American electoral politics is that when a current officeholder gets in trouble, he (this simply never happens to women politicians!) is going to be replaced by someone of the other political party. Examples of this are legion.
Earlier in 2011, also in New York, Democrat Kathy Hochul defeated Republican Jane Corwin in a heavily GOP district where a special election was being held to replace Congressman Christopher Lee. Mr. Lee had resigned his seat after bring caught placing personal ads on Craigslist in which he was shown shirtless. It was a little less provocative than some of the photos of his genitals that the married Mr. Weiner had sent to women friends, but it was scandalous behavior by the also married Mr. Lee nonetheless.
That time, the media and Democratic opinion-makers insisted that Ms. Hochul's win was because of the budget Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives had put forth, which would have positioned both Medicare and Social Security on the endangered species list.
Really, though, I think the voters were just angry because their Congressman had made a fool of them and they voiced their outrage in the best way they knew. I think that's also what happened in the election to pick Mr. Weiner's replacement.
The two New York races this year follow a pattern that's been present in several other political races in the past.
In 1980, Democratic Congressman John Jenrette was defeated by Republican challenger John Light Napier after Mr. Jenrette was involved in two scandals, one being his conviction for bribery in the Abscam investigation and the other involving a late-night sexual encounter with his then wife -- Rita -- on the steps of the U.S. Capitol. The latter event was a God-send for late-night comedians looking for good copy.
The South Carolina 6th Congressional District was in Republican hands for only two-years and Mr. Napier was defeated in the next general election by Democrat Robert Fallon Jr. who subsequently served five terms. He was succeeded in 1993 by Congressman James Clyburn who is presently an assistant Democratic leader in the U.S. House. Clearly the district is a Democratic one, albeit voters elected a Republican in 1980 to show their outrage over Mr. Jenrette's behavior.
In 1983, Congressman Dan Crane from Illinois' downstate 19th District admitted to an affair with a 17-year-old female page and was censured by his colleagues in the U.S. House of Representatives. Although he had served in Congress for six years, he subsequently was defeated by Democrat Terry Bruce in 1984. A married man with strong conservative political leanings, Mr. Crane was judged by many as being guilty of hypocrisy by his behavior.
By contrast, the same congressional investigation that revealed Mr. Crane's affair also revealed that openly gay Congressman Gerry Studds of Massachusetts had an affair with a 17-year-old male page, albeit a consensual one. Although he was censured at the same time as Mr. Crane, Mr. Studds retained his congressional seat and served a total of 12 two-year terms representing the Massachusetts 10th Congressional District.
Similarly, Congressman Barney Frank who represents the Massachusetts 4th District and also is openly gay, became involved in 1985 with a male prostitute for whom he subsequently fixed 33 parking tickets. He also was reprimanded by a 408-18 vote of his colleagues in the U.S. House of Representatives but continues to be re-elected and now is serving his 16th two-year term in the House.
Obviously, Massachusetts' voters don't feel the same level of resentment against openly gay elected officials who engage in gay relationships as other voters do toward those they view as being hypocritical in their behaviors.
In 1994, voters in Chicago's heavily Democratic 5th Congressional District gave the boot to their longtime congressman, Dan Rostenkowski, after it was revealed that he had been involved in matters that resulted in mail fraud charges against him. Mr. Rostenkowski, chair of the powerful House Ways & Means Committee, was decisively defeated by Republican Michael Flanagan. After serving 18 terms in the House, he served his last term in the "Big House."
Mr. Flanagan only represented the district for one term, being defeated in his 1996 re-election bid by Democrat Rod Blagojevich, who held the congressional seat for six years before being elected as Illinois Governor. He was succeeded by another Democrat, current Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel, who also served six years before resigning to become chief of staff to President Obama. The seat remains in Democratic hands today and is represented by Congressman Mike Quigley.
Again, the voters selection of a Republican in 1994 was not an indication of dissatisfaction with Democratic policy; rather, it was a protest to the offensive behavior of Mr. Rostenkowski in whom voters had so long placed their trust.
Mr. Blagojevich became Illinois' 40th governor in a similar set of circumstances. The incumbent Republican governor -- George Ryan -- was subject of a long investigation into corrupt practices and ultimately was convicted and sentenced to prison. At the time of Mr. Blagojevich's election, the Governor's Mansion had been in Republican hands for more than a quarter of a century.
Ironically, Mr. Blagojevich himself became the object of scandal when -- among other misdeeds -- he tried to sell the vacant U.S. Senate seat that formerly was held by President Obama. He was impeached by Illinois lawmakers and subsequently was convicted on numerous counts. His successor, Pat Quinn, is a maverick Democrat who is a stark contrast to Mr. Blagojevich; nonetheless, Mr. Quinn had a hard time with his election and nearly was defeated, in large part because of the anger Illinois' voters felt toward his Democratic predecessor.
In 2006, Republican Congressman Mark Foley of Florida's 16th Congressional District admitted that he had sent sexually explicit e-mail messages to a male 16-year-old former congressional page. Though he stepped down from his post prior to the election, his name was on the ballot nonetheless. His Democratic opponent, Tim Mahoney, scored a decisive victory against him in that year's election.
Mr. Mahoney himself became the object of scandal shortly afterwards when it was alleged that he had paid hush money to his former mistress in an effort to keep his affair secret. He was defeated in 2008 by Republican Tom Rooney who has held the seat ever since.
Again, the only dissatisfaction being shown by voters was against their elected representatives who misbehaved. It wasn't dissatisfaction with political policies.
The preceding are but a handful of examples of how voters have reacted to scandal by seeking change that is temporary and more a reaction to the bad behavior of their elected representatives than to any significant policy disagreements. As such, while it would be naive not to recognize that some of the voters in the recent New York 9th Congressional District special election indeed may have been expressing dissatisfaction with President Obama's policies when they cast their votes, it also is naive to think that was the major reason why the district went Republican in that contest.
Make a note to follow up on this issue next November. Will the 2012 election prove the pundits correct? Or might I be a little more accurate in my belief that the message voters were sending on September 13 was intended more for Mr. Weiner than for President Obama?
John A. Ostenburg is in his fourth four-year term as mayor of Park Forest, Illinois, and formerly served in the Illinois House of Representatives. He retired in July 2010 as the chief of staff for the Chicago Teachers Union after holding various posts over a 15-year period. A former newspaper reporter and editor, he also has been a teacher and school administrator. E-mail him at JOstenburg@aol.com.
Comments